Are Real Estate Prices Really Falling? What North County San Diego Buyers Should Know Going Into 2026

If you are thinking about buying in Oceanside or North County San Diego, you have probably seen dramatic headlines about a “housing cooldown.” So are real estate prices actually falling, and is 2026 your moment to buy?

Let’s break it down.

Are U.S. home prices falling?

Nationally, prices are not crashing, but growth has clearly cooled. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports U.S. home prices rose about 2.2% from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, with prices essentially flat from August to September. FHFA.gov

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index shows a similar story: prices are still slightly higher than a year ago, but gains have slowed to about 1.3% annually, the weakest growth since early 2023. Advisor Perspectives+1

In plain English: nationally, we are seeing a plateau, not a broad price crash.

What about San Diego County and North County?

Locally, the shift is a bit more noticeable. In 2025, the average San Diego home value has slipped around 4% year over year, and countywide medians are down roughly 1–2%, with homes taking longer to sell. Zillow+2Redfin+2

In Oceanside, the average home value sits in the mid-$800,000s and is down about 2–3% over the past year. Zillow That is a cooling, not a collapse, but it does create more opportunity for buyers than we saw in 2021–2022.

Similar mild softening is showing up in nearby North County communities like Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, Escondido, Fallbrook, Bonsall, and Valley Center, especially for move-up and luxury price points. Inventory is still limited, but buyers have more room to negotiate than they did a couple of years ago.

What experts expect for 2026

Most major forecasts are calling for a “normal” market, not a crash. National Association of REALTORS® economists expect a strong rebound in sales in 2026, with transactions potentially jumping more than 10% as rates ease and pent-up demand is released. nar.realtor

Other analysts are predicting modest national price growth under 4% in 2026, after several years of extreme ups and downs. CBS News+1 Local projections for the San Diego region point to flat-to-slightly-up prices as inventory stays tight but affordability remains a constraint. San Diego Real Estate Hunter

What this means if you are buying in North County

Instead of trying to “time the bottom,” focus on using today’s shifting market to your advantage:

• Prioritize the payment, not just the price. With rates likely to ease gradually, you may have future opportunities to refinance.

• Negotiate strategically. In Oceanside, Vista, and San Marcos, we are seeing more seller credits for closing costs, repairs, and rate buydowns when the home has been on the market a few weeks.

• Look beyond the obvious hot spots. Coastal Oceanside and Carlsbad remain highly competitive, but you may find better value slightly inland or in areas like Escondido, Fallbrook, Bonsall, and Valley Center where lots are larger and competition is lighter.

• Work with a local expert who tracks micro-trends. North County is not one single market. Oceanside condos by the beach behave very differently from a Valley Center ranch property or a Vista starter home.

If you are considering a move in 2026 and want help understanding where the opportunities really are in Oceanside and the surrounding North County communities, I am here to walk you through the numbers and the neighborhoods.

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About the Author – Naomi Benitez, REALTOR® With over six years of experience serving North County San Diego, Naomi Benitez (DRE #02122683) is recognized for delivering exceptional results for both buyers and sellers. Backed by a BA in Communications and an MBA from the University of San Diego, Naomi combines strategic marketing, expert negotiation, and deep local knowledge to help clients build wealth through real estate. As a bilingual, relationship-driven REALTOR®, she prides herself on transparency, responsiveness, and treating every transaction as if it were her own. If you're considering buying or selling a home in Oceanside, Vista, Escondido, or the surrounding communities, Naomi is the trusted professional you want on your side.📞 760-582-2033

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and is not intended as legal, tax, or financial advice. Please consult the appropriate professionals for guidance specific to your situation.